Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.096870 0.108322 0.120204 0.133423 0.147687 0.162585 0.179292
2024-10-20 0.076936 0.093524 0.111765 0.133175 0.157476 0.184065 0.215216
2024-10-27 0.063202 0.082931 0.105784 0.133878 0.167142 0.204932 0.250756
2024-11-03 0.057604 0.080557 0.108302 0.143685 0.186966 0.237548 0.300461
2024-11-10 0.048994 0.073134 0.103590 0.143854 0.194662 0.255635 0.333262
2024-11-17 0.042984 0.068123 0.101093 0.146083 0.204397 0.275962 0.368860
2024-11-24 0.037400 0.062895 0.097617 0.146446 0.211340 0.292633 0.400026
2024-12-01 0.035411 0.062411 0.100280 0.154773 0.228567 0.322425 0.448021
2024-12-08 0.033665 0.062014 0.102877 0.162929 0.245638 0.352270 0.496590
2024-12-15 0.030063 0.058340 0.100418 0.163759 0.252681 0.369067 0.528575
2024-12-22 0.025857 0.053197 0.095338 0.160446 0.253726 0.377777 0.550024
2024-12-29 0.024472 0.052509 0.096817 0.166528 0.267809 0.403965 0.594697
2025-01-05 0.022394 0.050582 0.096488 0.170285 0.279276 0.427650 0.637621
2025-01-12 0.020264 0.048337 0.095519 0.173065 0.289514 0.450055 0.679556
2025-01-19 0.018243 0.046030 0.094249 0.175267 0.298935 0.471538 0.720709
2025-01-26 0.018261 0.047621 0.099520 0.187828 0.323876 0.515070 0.792589
2025-02-02 0.016234 0.044899 0.097250 0.188300 0.330820 0.533478 0.830373
2025-02-09 0.014795 0.043170 0.096528 0.191135 0.341285 0.556970 0.875462
2025-02-16 0.013179 0.040817 0.094482 0.191630 0.348099 0.575281 0.913553
2025-02-23 0.012993 0.041618 0.098197 0.201797 0.370000 0.615634 0.983021
2025-03-02 0.012778 0.042314 0.101724 0.211717 0.391686 0.655966 1.052936
2025-03-09 0.011534 0.040383 0.100116 0.212730 0.399310 0.675761 1.093874
2025-03-16 0.009878 0.037159 0.095746 0.208709 0.398766 0.683454 1.117612